Our Pre-Game Analysis We Gave Our Clients
Today in the ACC we have NCSt traveling to take on VaTech.
State has already secured their bowl spot, as they have won their last 3 games
and they are 7-3 on the season. VaTech is 3-1 in their past 4 contests, and they are
5-5 on the season. They're still trying to get that 6th win. After starting the season at 1-3,
they have managed to go 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. Last week we had
VaTech as part of our 500% Parlay winner with TxTech, as they blew out B.College on the road.
They are coming off their best performance of the season, as they managed to
have 600 total yards of rushing and passing offense. In their last 6 games they scored
30 or more in their 4 wins, but only 17 and 3 in their 2 losses.
We're going to dig deeper into those last 6 games, because there's very good reason
why the outcomes were 4 wins and 2 losses. The 4 teams they beat were ...
Pitt, W.Forest, Syracuse, and B.College. These 4 all have something in common - Bad Defenses.
Pitt's Rushing Defense gives up 158 yds/gm and they've allowed 38 Touchdowns on the season.
The numbers on the other 3 in those same 2 categories are ...
W.Forest 147 and 29 , Syracuse 144 and 25 , and B.College the worst is 189 and 41.
Now, let's look at the 2 losses they had over that 6 week span. They got blown out by
Louisville who gives up 92 yds/gm on the ground and have only had 22 Touchdowns scored on them.
And Fla St gives up only 139 yds/gm on the ground and have only had 20 Touchdowns on them.
Now this week they face N.C.State and their tough defense which gives up an average
of only 100 yds/gm on the ground and have given up only 23 Touchdowns.
So this week VaTech will be going from playing their best game of the season which was
against the worst defense they've faced - to now one of the Top 3 Defenses they will face
on the season to date. They got blown out by the other 2 ( Louisville & Florida St).
And, a team they played earlier in the season that has a good Defense is Rutgers.
Rutgers allows 128 yds/gm on the ground and has given up 23 Touchdowns.
VaTech lost to Rutgers by 19 ( 35-16).
These 4 good defensive teams ... Louis, Fla St, Rutgers, & NCSt ...
give up an average of 17, 17, 18, and NCSt 19 points per game.
Their recent 4 wins came against ... Pitt, W.For, Syr, and B.Coll.
Those 4 give up an average of 27, 24, 22, and 28 points per game.
The turnover margin of those 4 good defensive teams is also significant.
Fla St +8 , Louis +6 , NCSt +6 , and Rutgers +5.
The Turnover margin of those 4 teams they beat over the last 6 weeks ...
Syracuse +1 , B.College -1 , Pitt -5 , and W.Forest -6
VaTech's numbers for all the above categories are similar to the teams they beat.
They give up an average of 24 pts/gm. They've given up 31 Touchdowns.
They give up an average of 156 yds/gm rushing. And, their Turnover margin is 0.
And, against the other 3 good defensive teams they faced, their Turnover marin was -4.
They now are playing at home with the pressure of trying to get that 6th win against
one of the best defenses they've faced all season and they are favored.
VaTech is really not a good team that is coming off their best performance of the season,
and it was against one of the worst defensive teams they've faced.
That was their first win on the season that was against a team with a winning record.
VaTech is 5-1 SU & ATS at home this season. But all of those were against teams with losing records.
They must now go up against one of the best defensive teams they'll face on the season!
PREDICTION: N.C.STATE 24-16 VIRG.TECH